UNLESS we are on track for a major polling miss, Reform UK looks set to do very well in Thursday’s local elections.
But for Nigel Farage, the real test on May 1 might come after the results are in.
Party leader Nigel Farage’s real test starts after May 1st[/caption]
For after the heady business of tallying the votes and working out who’s won what comes the much less glamorous business of actually trying to run your local council — an area where Ukip really struggled to make an impact.
Historically, Farage has done well in low-turnout elections, where his highly motivated base is more likely to vote.
This is how Ukip secured its foothold in Brussels, and why the Brexit Party was able to actually win the 2019 European elections.
The latest research from More in Common suggests the same applies now, with Reform posting its biggest leads among voters who rate themselves 10/10 in terms of likelihood to vote.
Pacts and deals
Yet to date, those elected under the banners of Farage’s various parties have tended to be much less effective at the actual job of being a legislator.
Nobody — and certainly not Ukip voters — really minded when this happened in Brussels.
But people pay more attention when you are responsible for collecting their bins, and Ukip’s poor performance in town halls was punished at the ballot box.
Then there’s the question — whisper it, lest Nigel hears us — of pacts and deals.
Unlike Westminster, which tends to see one party secure an overall majority most of the time, town hall politics is much more fragmented, and formal or informal coalitions are common.
Perhaps there will be some councils where Reform sweeps into overall control. But what about the rest?
Farage has already ruled out making any accommodations with the Conservatives.
Yet whether he likes it or not, they are probably going to be the best, or only, partners available to Reform councillors, and not just because they are the other party of the Right.
The Tories were historically a highly decentralised party (described by one historian as “six hundred social clubs that dabble in politics”).
As a result, Conservative councillors are generally allowed to make their own arrangements at town hall level.
Labour, on the other hand, requires any coalition or power- sharing agreement to be signed off by the central party.
He is the reason that Reform UK exists at all, and doubtless the biggest factor in why it seems set to do so well on Thursday
Henry on Farage
It takes this seriously, too. In 2017, it suspended nine councillors in Aberdeen after they allied with the local Tories to kick out the Scottish Nationalists.
Is Sir Keir Starmer likely to sign off a Red/Teal pact, even if a local Labour group was up for one?
What about the Reform councillors themselves, for that matter?
Kemi Badenoch’s Conservatives are expected to struggle as Reform make gains[/caption]
They will have their own democratic mandates, and have given up time and money to campaign for the chance to make a difference in their local area.
If an alliance with the local Tories gave them a chance to do that, would they all turn it down just because Farage told them to?
This tension has been at the heart of all his political projects. Farage is a political star, and a campaigner of rare ability.
He is the reason that Reform UK exists at all, and doubtless the biggest factor in why it seems set to do so well on Thursday.
It is probably no coincidence that Rupert Lowe was single-handedly responsible for almost half the recorded Parliamentary work of the party’s entire five-strong group in the House of Commons
Henry
But the level of command and control he demands makes it impossible for his parties to grow into institutions bigger than he is.
It is the very calibre of people most likely to make effective MPs and councillors who are most likely to be sufficiently independent-minded to clash with Farage sooner or later.
It is probably no coincidence that Rupert Lowe, the MP for Great Yarmouth suspended from Reform in March, was single-handedly responsible for almost half the recorded Parliamentary work of the party’s entire five-strong group in the House of Commons.
The same tensions have been playing out at lower levels of the party, too.
Political soap opera
In January, ten Reform councillors in Derbyshire resigned from the party in protest at Farage’s “increasingly autocratic manner”, while branch officers and even branches have either dissolved or been shut down by the centre.
Good candidates have been put off by the row.
Perhaps this sounds like second-rate political soap opera, and doubtless much of it is. But it does matter.
Nigel’s fallout with Rupert Lowe, the MP for Great Yarmouth suspended from Reform in March, could prove problematic[/caption]
In an age when fewer and fewer people volunteer for politics, councillors and branch officials are a party’s infantry and NCOs.
A strong local government base is an excellent springboard for winning a Parliamentary seat — if those councillors remain motivated, or indeed inside the party.
But if the price of that was loosening his grip on the reins and creating space for a few more big beasts in the Reform tent (especially if it starts winning metro mayoralties) it isn’t obvious that Farage is prepared to pay it.
And there’s plenty of time for the wheels to come off the bus between now and 2029.
KEMI’S CRISIS
AS for the Conservatives, the only real discussion is around just how bad a night they are going to have.
It isn’t impossible the Tories could lose every council they are defending.
Kemi Badenoch’s Tories could be in for a hammering at the local elections[/caption]
Fortunately for Kemi Badenoch for most of the party that looming calamity has been priced in.
While in the past it has tended to rebound in local elections after losing power at Westminster (in 1998 William Hague picked up 256 extra councillors), this time the party is defending seats last fought at the apex of Boris Johnson’s popularity.
It was never going to go well.
One thing CCHQ will be keeping an eye on, though, is areas where there is a sitting Conservative MP but where the Greens or Liberal Democrats do well.
Why? Not only did the Tories win fewer seats last July than they did in 1998, they held those seats by much narrower margins.
Worse still, the party’s membership has shrunk by 60 per cent since the turn of the millennium, and it is struggling to raise funds.
That means even if the Conservatives’ overall polling improves, MPs with fragile majorities and hollowed-out local parties could be vulnerable to carefully targeted campaigns – and Sir Ed Davey has been making no secret of his efforts to park his tanks on Tory lawns.
