AS the Prime Minister jetted off last night on his tenth foreign trip in just two months, he was flying into the unknown.
With shell-shocked world leaders gathering in Rio for the first time since Donald Trump sealed his comeback, Sir Keir Starmer is entering the most perilous period yet of his short premiership.
PM Sir Keir Starmer is entering the most perilous period yet of his short premiership[/caption]
At home and abroad events are moving out of his control, while MPs bicker about assisted dying.
Despite the so-called special relationship, Downing Street is as oblivious as the rest of the world to what Trump actually plans to do about Ukraine and when.
Only the most optimistic of Labour figures think that the UK really will be able to walk a tightrope between two big blocs if the EU and America end up in a tariffs war.
And as Washington reels from Trump’s fairly wacky Cabinet picks, British diplomats are scrambling to work out what it will mean for us.
While the PM hobnobs on Copacabana Beach with the rest of the G20, back home the first major protest against this newish government will begin tomorrow as the farmers take to the streets.
Dark threats
Whitehall is holding its breath to see whether things end up looking pretty French with hundreds of tractors blocking roads and cows**t sprayed all over the Treasury, as some fear.
Less stinky, but more toxic would be if the farmers come good on their dark threats to deprive supermarkets of food as they ratchet up their protests in coming weeks against tax hits.
Add to that the disappointing growth figures last week that looked like a smoking gun proving Labour’s doom and gloom first few months talking down the economy scored a direct hit.
For a government that is betting the house on getting growth going, tariffs, protests and shattered business confidence is a recipe for becoming deeply, deeply unpopular.
The Budget was meant to be a big reset moment after a rocky few months in No10 that saw the PM forced to admit his first attempt to build an internal team was duff.
Bringing in a slew of Blairite veterans and handing far more power to his political team has made the building a bit more functional, but voters don’t care about the backroom machinations, just the results.
Good progress has been made dumping stupid ideas of the Government’s own making like banning smoking in pub gardens.
But plenty more fights were picked by the Chancellor last month that it is not yet clear the Government has the support to see off.
Despite the pre-election love-in with the City and business leaders, the wealth-creators have wasted no time in hammering Rachel Reeves’ National Insurance raid.
The Government is going to struggle to cut through the noise.
Harry Cole
Meanwhile the usual suspects are back out saying Trump’s win means Starmer needs to tilt back towards the EU — a voter-repellent policy in places where Reform is breathing down Cabinet ministers’ necks, such as Yvette Cooper and Ed Miliband in their Yorkshire seats.
And frustration is growing internally. Before the election I predicted in these pages that eventually Labour would hit the same roadblocks to change that has blighted every recent Tory administration.
But I thought it would be longer than four and a half months before those in Starmer’s team admitted they are already banging their heads against the wall.
The Blob, the bureaucratic state, the woke Working From Home naysayers, the overly cautious Government legal operation — call it whatever you want, they haven’t gone away simply because the front-of-house figures have changed.
The mutterings that perhaps Dominic Cummings, the self-proclaimed Whitehall arsonist, had a point all along are only growing as ministers get to grips with the machine.
“The NHS is so f***ed it can’t even kill people properly,” lamented one Labour powerbroker this week.
Smoke signal
With the next two weeks expected to be dominated by the debate over assisted dying, the Government is going to struggle to cut through the noise.
Even if the controversial bill were to pass in the Commons on November 29, the long process through the House of Lords will only see the debate rage for months — and even years yet.
And that “bandwidth” is a major reason why a number of people around Starmer and at the top of the Cabinet would happily see it fall.
With the Deputy PM (in name only) Angie Rayner indicating she is now against, and the Chancellor letting it be known she is sceptical, a pretty big smoke signal is being sent to backbench MPs.
The two major departments that would have to oversee the new law — Justice and Health — are led by Ministers who have come out against the bill, adding to the feeling it is doomed.
That result would at least be one problem solved for a PM not short of headaches at a time he could really do with a bit of help.
IT is not yet clear who Nigel Farage is going to annoy more in the coming weeks.
Reform is on course to hit 100,000 members and could overtake the Tories by the Spring.
And they are eating into the Conservatives’ desperately needed donor pool – leaving the party so broke they are struggling to hire Shadow Cabinet advisers.
Meanwhile, Nige’s hotline to the next US President has the potential to wind up the PM something chronic and Trump never fails to heap praise on Farage in calls.
No wonder he’s grinning like a Cheshire cat these days.
'Dress down' away day
VERY on-brand for Sir Keir Starmer to host a “Cabinet away day” not just in London, but across the road at the Foreign Office – 100 yards from the Cabinet Room.
While ministers were relieved they didn’t have to waste half a day trekking to some conference centre, the “dress down” orders caused some division.
The PM led a group of Centrist Dads in jeans, trainers and zip up sweaters.
While Business Secretary Johnny Reynolds “looked like something out of a Christmas advert” in a knitted jumper, according to one colleague.
Chief bean counter Darren Jones hit the business casual look, simply replacing his suit jacket with a tweedy number.
But there were giggles from the PM himself as his enforcer Pat McFadden and Defence Secretary John Healey studiously ignored his orders.
Both turned up in their Labour uniforms – dark suit, white shirt and a red tie.
No time for any casual frivolity.
